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Jun 11, 2021 · 2.
Figure 7, crown and anchor नए ऑनलाइन कैसीनो 2023. The growth of ensemble-averaged mean-squared displacement in different datasets presents different diffusive behaviors. In the figures, the error bars represent 95% confidence intervals, blue dashed lines follow linear functions (slope = 1), and green dotted lines follow quadratic functions (slope = 2). In ref. 8 we argued that the crossover from a superdiffusive regime to a normal diffusive regime in a parimutuel game is due to the limitation of individuals’ wealth and the conservation of total wealth. Similar crossovers are observed in games (G) and (H), two parimutuel betting games, where the same explanation can be applied. On the other hand, this crossover is also found in a Roulette game and in a Crash game, where there is no interaction among gamblers. The limitation of an individual’s wealth can still be a partial explanation, but the conservation of total wealth no longer holds. A different explanation needs to be proposed to model this crossover. In the following we briefly discuss how we can obtain from gambling models the different diffusive processes observed in the data. We will not attempt to reproduce the parameters we obtained from the gambling logs, but rather try to explore the possible reasons for the anomalous diffusion we reported. For a gambling process, if the gambler’s behavior is independent among different rounds, i.e., the wager and odds are respectively independent and identically distributed (IID), with no influence from the previous outcomes, and if the wager b has finite variance and the odds m has finite mean, then MSD’s growth will be a linear function of time t : $$\langle \Delta ^(t)\rangle =\langle _)>^\rangle =(\langle m\rangle -1)\langle ^\rangle t,$$ where \(\langle m\rangle \) is the mean value of odds distribution and \(\langle ^\rangle \) is the second moment of the wager distribution. But normal diffusion is only found in few datasets, the remaining datasets presenting anomalous diffusion which conflicts with the IID assumption. Having shown the popularity of betting systems among gamblers, we would like to check how different betting systems affect diffusive behaviors. First, we simulate gamblers that follow Martingale strategies in a Crash game. We assume that the selection of odds follows a power-law distribution with an exponent α , with a minimum odds of 1 and a maximum odds of 50, where the maximum odds is set to ensure a finite mean of the odds distribution. Starting from a minimum bet of 1, we multiply wagers by a ratio γ each time the gamblers lose one round and return to the minimum bet each time they win. Once the wager reaches a preset maximum bet value 10000, we reset the gambler with a minimum bet. MSD obtained from 10 billion individual simulations is shown in Fig. 8. Different curves correspond to different exponents in odds distribution. We can see that the MSD initially presents an exponential-like growth, before the growths reduce to a linear function. It is easy to explain the exponential growth since many gamblers lose the rounds and therefore increase their wager by the factor γ , which leads to an increase in the average bet value. The superdiffusion here suggests that Martingale strategy increases gamblers’ risks of huge losses. Considering the wide adoption of Martingale among gamblers, this could be a reason for the superdiffusion as well as the crossover to normal diffusion we found in several datasets. Comparison of the MSD curves of different α suggests that a more aggressive risk attitude leads to a higher risk of huge losses (as well as higher potential winnings). Figure 8. A betting system similar to Martingale will lead to a crossover from superdiffusion to normal diffusion according to the growth of mean-squared displacement. Comparison between curves of different parameters shows that higher γ and lower α both will lead to a higher chance of huge losses/winnings.
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